market reflection

The dawn of a new year is always a great time to reflect on the achievements and challenges of the last 12 months and look towards the opportunities that may avail themselves in the future.

This is particularly true for those working in the UK mortgage market, which experienced abundant change and many ups and downs in 2024.

The year began on a high note, with significant rate cuts and falling inflation sparking a surge in mortgage activity among borrowers.

After a year of rising costs and tightening budgets in 2023, such initial positivity brought welcome relief to consumers, advisers and businesses alike, and provided much-needed early momentum in the mortgage market.

Sadly, this uplift in confidence was somewhat short-lived as rates once again began to climb on the back of stubborn inflationary pressure and increased economic uncertainty.

This led to mortgage affordability remaining a significant challenge for many households and had a negative impact on consumer confidence and market activity.

The surprise calling of a General Election in July only served to exacerbate the issue, further subduing the market as consumers held back and adopted a wait-and-see approach on the impact a potential change in Government might have on their finances and the wider economy.

More peaks and troughs followed in the second half of the year, with the election of the first Labour-led Government in 14 years bringing further change.

This was swiftly followed by the Bank of England’s decision to cut Bank Base Rate (BBR) in August, the first in a year, which did initially improve activity and helped restore a little market confidence.

However, the handing down of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s first Labour Budget in October prompted a further market-wide wobble, as we all tried to get to grip with the proposed changes.

We did get a further BBR cut in November but there was little immediate relief here, although you might well argue this will lay the groundwork for what many in the industry believe to be a greater stability and improved conditions in 2025.

So, after a rollercoaster 12 months, what does the new year actually hold for advisers, lenders and the wider mortgage community?

While no-one knows for certain, it is widely expected BBR will fall further over the next year, with market analysts – and indeed the Governor himself, Andrew Bailey – appearing to predict four cuts in 2025.

This means BBR could fall to between down to around 3.75% over the course of the year, leading to improved affordability and hopefully greater choice for borrowers.

This will come as a welcome relief to those homeowners with fixed rate mortgages maturing in 2025, a figure estimated to be around 1.8 million people, according to UK Finance.

It is also good news for advisers, as lower mortgage rates mean there will be more product choice and increased opportunity to help clients secure a better deal when remortgaging.

This will also help to reduce the reliance on, and need for, product transfers, which have become a default solution for many borrowers facing affordability constraints over the last year.

According to figures from the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association (IMLA), 90% of all mortgage business written is done so by mortgage advisers.

This figure is expected to rise even further in 2025, as borrowers continue to need ongoing support when trying to navigate the complexities of the UK mortgage market.

These figures clearly demonstrate the importance of the advice process among mortgage borrowers and presents advisers with a real opportunity to expand their knowledge to ensure they are covering all their customers’ needs.

This could be by exploring the ongoing support and training offered by mortgage networks like ourselves, or expanding their knowledge and revenue stream by tapping into ancillary sales opportunities such as protection and general insurance.

Either way, making the most of all these opportunities will ensure advisers continue to meet the needs of every one of their customers, whether they are first-time buyers, second movers or older borrowers in need of a later life lending product.

It will also stand them in good stead for the year ahead and ensure they are prepared for any unexpected surprises – good or bad – that may come their way.

Victoria Clark is head of lending at The Right Mortgage & Protection Network